Fed: Leadership tensions leave ALP with two questions

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Fed: Leadership tensions leave ALP with two questions

By James Grubel, Chief Political Correspondent

CANBERRA, April 25 AAP - The explosive leadership tensions within the ALP have leftLabor MPs with two difficult questions to answer.

Just who should they choose as leader? And will that person give them any chance ofdefeating the government at the next election?

Judging by events of the past week, it will be difficult for the ALP to find an adequatesolution to either question.

As the country approaches the middle of John Howard's third term, Labor is in total disarray.

The polls show leader Simon Crean has made no impact on the electorate, while the partyhas actually gone backwards in terms of voter support.

Then former leader Kim Beazley weighed in with some timely advice, courtesy of an interviewin The Bulletin.

Mr Beazley used the interview to lay out how he would run a campaign against Mr Howard,and to lament his disappointment at not being prime minister with the current focus ondefence and international issues.

On one level, the interview could be seen as the ramblings of a humble backbencherwho pines for the glory days and who knows about the difficulties of being a leader inthe face of poor polls.

But the interview was more than that.

The growing number of Labor MPs who are losing patience with Mr Crean considered theinterview to be declaration of intent.

Mr Beazley had made it abundantly clear that he was ready and willing to take up theleadership again if Mr Crean stood aside.

Whatever his intention, Mr Beazley's comments were like a hand grenade thrown intothe ALP caucus.

It ignited leadership tension and has forced the party into a position where it nowmust make a choice.

One way or another, it has to resolve what to do with Mr Crean's leadership so it canthen get on with the business of finding a way to attack Mr Howard.

For the time being, Mr Beazley is playing down suggestions of a direct challenge.

He says Mr Crean's future is in Mr Crean's hands.

As a key supporter of Bob Hawke during the former prime minister's bitterly-divisivefeud with Paul Keating, Mr Beazley has seen the kind of damage that can be caused by adrawn out leadership fight.

He would prefer the kind of smooth and peaceful transition, similar to the change whenMr Hawke took over from Bill Hayden in early 1983, when factional bosses told Mr Haydenhe had to go.

But Mr Crean is not likely to go peacefully.

His angry reaction to Mr Beazley's interview, where he accused the former leader ofdisloyalty, signalled Mr Crean was getting ready for a fight.

Fed up with being undermined by colleagues in the media, Mr Crean went on the attackand decided to confront his critics head on.

It was time to put up or shut up, Mr Crean told reporters.

His strong reaction met with an equally strong rejection by Mr Beazley.

Mr Beazley took offence at being labelled disloyal. He then, apparently, lost Mr Crean'sphone number.

If the stand-off continues, Mr Crean's leadership will only be further undermined andLabor will lose any chance of starting to claw back support from the coming Budget sessionof parliament.

The Labor caucus next meets on Budget day, May 13. That will be the first opportunityfor a spill motion against Mr Crean.

Insiders suggest the matter would not come to a head until after the Budget, whichpoints to the caucus meeting of May 27.

Mr Crean has other options, though.

He could call an emergency meeting of caucus members and resolve the issue once and for all.

He could follow the example set by then National Party leader Tim Fischer in August 1998.

Sick of two years of sniping at his ability to lead the party, Mr Fischer called ameeting of National MPs and Senators and declared all leadership positions open.

Mr Fischer and his then deputy John Anderson were re-elected unopposed.

Mr Crean would need a similar victory to have any hope of uniting the party ahead ofthe next election.

He would need to win with the overwhelming support of the Labor caucus or his leadershipwould be permanently damaged and his political standing would be severely undermined.

The other option for Labor would be a victory for Mr Beazley - a move which would puthim into his third straight election contest against Mr Howard.

To have any chance, Mr Beazley will have to shed his nice-guy image and might findhe has to follow the example of Mr Keating by launching an assault against his leader.

That would prove he had the ticker to lead, and would at least counter one of the argumentshe would be likely to face in an election campaign.

But the answer to the wider question, whether Kim Beazley would have any more hopeof victory against John Howard than Simon Crean, remains unknown.

Given the comments in The Bulletin this week, it would be difficult to imagine Mr Beazleywinning at his third attempt at the prime ministership.

His campaign plan would hinge on a series of questions about respect. Are we respectedas people? Do we respect each other? Do we respect people who send their kids to publicschools?

Mr Beazley provided no clear answers.

And in a four-hour interview with The Bulletin, Mr Beazley failed to directly ruleout another bid for the leadership or to make his future plans any clearer.

"I had the chance. So what do I do now? I get on with my life. As I said, I'm effectivelyback on the tools," he said.

By late May, Australians might know exactly which tools Mr Beazley has been using.

AAP jg/kim/br

KEYWORD: NEWSCOPE FEDERAL (AAP ANALYSIS)